I’ve been known to play the ponies on occasion. In fact, I used to live within walking distance of a racetrack. So, while I don’t follow the sport religiously anymore, I still really enjoy the Kentucky Derby, which is this weekend. Here is your helpful handicapping guide in case you might be tempted to go to Off-Track Betting.
First, some basic guidelines on how to pick the Derby. The best horse does not always win. It’s a big field and crazy things happen. But there are some basic characteristics you can look for to help narrow down the field. What I’m looking for is:
1. Performance – the horse should have posted a Beyer speed figure of 100 at least once. And if not, they better have some big wins.
2. Experience – At least three graded stakes is nice, and they have to have run over a mile and done well.
3. Winnings – At least one win this year. And rarely finishing out of the money.
So who can we throw out right away? Sedgefield, Zanjero, Storm in May, Imawildandcrazyguy, and Bwana Bull. That still leaves 14 horses to break down (bad choice of words). This group has almost no chance, but one of them could pull a Giacomo or something, I just won’t be betting on them. So here’s a handy betting guide for the rest of the field. Those numbers next to the horses are in order: Starts, wins, places, shows, winnings, highest Beyer, odds. The first number is the gate.
2 CURLIN 3 3 0 0 0 $802,800 103 7-2
A horse has not won the Derby when it has not raced as a two-year old in over 100 years. He won the Arkansas Derby by 10 lengths and is now installed as the Derby favorite. That’s just crazy. He would be a nice sleeper pick, but a favorite? He won three prep races, but he hasn’t beaten any of the favorites. He could very well be the best horse, but the value sucks. Also, his post is against the rail, which doesn’t bode well.
6 COWTOWN CAT 7 4 0 1 $488,463 98 30-1
A sucker bet. Has not beaten anyone. Won the Illinois Derby by going wire to wire, which won’t happen here. Like the odds, but there’s just no reason to bet him.
7 STREET SENSE 7 3 2 2 $1,508,200 108 4-1
Should be the favorite, and may be by the time the race begins. He’s dealing with the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile curse, but that’s usually because Juvenile winners matured earlier. Street Sense won the Tampa Derby and finished strong in the Blue Grass. He just ran out of track, which is another good sign considering the Derby is a longer race. I mean, I’m going to feel really stupid when I leave him out of my exotic bets.
8 HARD SPUN 6 5 0 0 0 $473,470 101 15-1
First, the good news. Six races, five wins. His Beyers have progressively improved with time as he’s run longer distances. Now, the bad news. Everything else. Not a bad horse to throw into the exacta wager, but there is nothing in the record the makes me jump up and down.
9 LIQUIDITY 7 1 2 1 $197,200 102 30-1
One win? You’re entering a horse in the Derby with one fucking win? Has spent the year getting his ass kicked by Tiago, Sam P, Circular Quay, and Zanjero.
10 TEUFLESBERG 15 4 1 2 $385,431 100 50-1
OK, he’s not a top tier horse, but I like saying “Teuflesberg” and I like his workmanlike career. He’s the kind of a horse which will find his way in the top three when the race goes to pot.
12 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 6 4 1 1 $804,900 98 8-1
Six races and five were grade stakes. He’s won a Grade 1 (Wood Memorial), a Grade 2 (Remsen), and a Grade 3 (Holy Bull). He’s beaten a lot of the horse in the field, though Scat Daddy seems to have his number (he is 1-2 vs. Scat Daddy). He’s never posted that magical 100 Beyer, but he’s never posted lower than a 92 so its not like he isn’t capable. He has finished in the money in all of his starts, and like I said, he hasn’t been racing chumps. A great value bet.
13 SAM P. 8 2 2 1 $217,564 99 20-1
His odds have been falling rapidly, so he’s the Wise Guy pick. He’s never won a Graded stakes, so I don’t see it. Wise Guys often outthink themselves in the Derby trying to find that upset special. I’m out.
14 SCAT DADDY 8 5 1 1 $1,334,300 98 10-1
Riding a two-race win streak so he’s hot right now. But last time he raced against these horses, he got his ass kicked in the Juvenile. That doesn’t scare me as much, but the Beyer scares me. I’m really torn on this horse. Wait until post, if the odds are right, then place the bet.
15 TIAGO 4 2 0 1 $484,320 100 15-1
His Santa Anita win looks completely unlike the rest of his mediocre career. It screams fluke. I don’t like him at all.
16 CIRCULAR QUAY 7 4 2 0 $1,147,434 102 8-1
He skipped all of the major preps. That’s bad. No horse wins after skipping the preps. Most of his wins were early in his career, his Louisiana Derby win ended a major losing streak. There’s too much baggage here. There’s potential, but I’m not that excited.
17 STORMELLO 9 3 1 2 $675,100 96 30-1
If you’re looking for a horse that will take a lead and then die down the stretch, here it is. I actually like Stormello, I just am not convinced he can go the distance.
18 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 6 3 2 1 $299,213 102 12-1
He’s never had a good ride it seems. He’s always going 4-wide or some crazy thing like that. And even with that, he always finishes in the money. He’s never won a Graded Stakes, which makes me nervous, but this is the kind of horse that can have a huge bounce in the Derby. I really like him.
19 DOMINICAN 7 3 0 2 $596,259 95 20-1
He won the Blue Grass, but I think that was him hitting his ceiling, not a preview of things to come. He’s just outclassed, but lightning could strike twice.
20 GREAT HUNTER 9 3 4 1 $772,500 101 15-1
Throw out the Blue Grass. He pulled up in the stretch, so I’m not sure its an accurate reflection. Has gone back and forth with Street Sense and Circular Quay. He’s demonstrated the same quality, yet he’s the one with the long odds. The best value on the board.
So, what are the picks?
1. Any Given Saturday
2. Great Hunter
3. Street Sense
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz
But I don’t really have the feeling this year. I’m not sold on any horse.
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