Why I Don't Have A Girlfriend

The Hall of Fame ballots were released this week. I’m a huge baseball dork, so this is like Christmas for me. Excuse the extreme dorkiness as I breakdown the ballot. As always when I do something like this, I provide something fun for the rest of you:

Spear tossing! I can’t crack 500. Give it a try.

First time guys are marked with an asterisk.

THE TEST CASE
*Harold Baines

First time on the ballot, its also the first time a career DH is on the ballot. Consider this the test case for the Edgar Martinez candidacy. In 1987 at the age of 28, Baines became primarily a DH due to some bad knees and some fairly bad fielding numbers, though not horrific. He played until age 42, logging 1644 games at DH, 1061 as an OF. He was a six time All-Star, and over his career posted a 120 OPS+ (20% better than league average, adjusted for park effects). He hit 289 on his career with 384 HRs. Nice numbers, but he fell short of the magic 3000 hits, “only” getting 2866. That gives people a good excuse to keep him out.

There’s a bias against DH’s, whether its deserved or not. The thing is, with his numbers, Baines wouldn’t get in as a right fielder. He has nice numbers, but not terrific. He was top ten in the MVP only once. He never won the World Series. He never led the league in a major offensive category. If someone is going to break the DH barrier, it won’t be Baines, which is a shame, as he was always one of my favorite players and known as a really nice guy.


HOW THE HELL IS HE NOT IN ALREADY?
Bert Blyleven

Seriously. It’s bordering on criminal. 287 wins (26th all-time). 3701 strikeouts (5th all-time). 60 shutouts (9th all-time). He won two World Series, with a career WS line of 2.35 and a 2-1 record in three starts. Oh, and he is generally considered to have the greatest curveball in the history of baseball. I don’t understand any rational argument for keeping him out other than he played for a lot of teams because he liked getting paid. He’s being kept out because he didn’t hit this arbitrary number of 300 wins and that’s just stupid. He was a great pitcher.

SHORTSTOPS WHO ARE HURT BY THIS RIPKEN GUY
Dave Concepcion
Alan Trammell

Before Ripken, their numbers were just fine, even stellar for a shortstop in Trammell’s case. Then Ripken changed our expectations on what a shortstop should do at the plate and its killing Trammell. Concepcion was a nice player, but he’s only still on the ballot due to some heavy lobbying from his Big Red Machine teammates. He’s not Joe Morgan. Trammell was a four-time Gold Glover and three-time Silver Slugger, a tough trick when you’re competing against the second coming of Honus Wagner. Trammell put up good hitting numbers at a position not known for hitters. Until now. Trammell is being kept out due to our changed expectations of his position. In fact, his closest hitting comps are second basemen, which means there wasn’t a shortstop that really compared except maybe Barry Larkin. But Trammell compares favorably to the shortstops already enshrined like Pee Wee Reese, Lou Boudreau, Luis Aparacio, and he blows the doors of Phil Rizzuto. He’s borderline, but I’d vote for him, if only because he was part of perhaps the best double play combo since Tinkers and Evers.


OVERRATED FIRST BASEMEN
Steve Garvey
Don Mattingly

Nice players. Good numbers. Nothing that blows your doors off. Both get continued support because of their outsized personalities (Mattingly was 0% bullshit, Garvey was about 100% bullshit, so it evened out). First basemen have to get in based on hitting, and there numbers just pale in comparison to the first basemen already enshrined.

SLAM DUNKS
*Tony Gwynn
*Cal Ripken Jr.

Failing to vote for either of these two guys should get your voting privileges revoked. OK, I can see a case against Gwynn, who couldn’t run, field, or hit for power. But God, was he the almost perfect contact hitter.

Ripken is either the greatest or second greatest shortstop of all-time, depending on how you rank Honus Wagner. The Streak. Two MVPs. Rookie of the Year. 3184 hits. 431 HRs. 19-time All-Star. Still the record holder for Greatest Defensive Season ever, in which he made three errors and had a record .996 fielding percentage for a shortstop. Actually, his defense wasn’t appreciated until late in his career, as Ozzie Guillen won the Gold Glove that year. A guy so goody-goody, his endorsement deal was for milk. Heroes always let you down, except Cal. I was a lucky kid to have him as a hero.

THE OUTFIELD GLUT
Albert Belle
Andre Dawson
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Jim Rice

Let’s play “guess that statline” as we put these guys head to head. All won an MVP award, though Murphy won two.

#1 298/352/502 382 HR 1451 RBI 2452 H 58 SB below average defense
#2 295.369/564 381 HR 1239 RBI 1726 H 9 SB below average defense
#3 279/323/482 438 HR 1591 RBI 2774 H 314 SB above average defense
#4 290/339/471 339 HR 1493 RBI 2712 H 154 SB average defense
#5 265/346/469 398 HR 1266 RBI 2111 H 161 SB very good defense

OK, who jumps out? No one, really. Player #2 has awesome rate stats, but has terrible counting stats because of a career cut short by injury. If you vote solely on peak, he’s the obvious guy. Player #3 has the best counting stats, but his rate stats are a little behind the others. Though he was the only one who was huge base stealing threat. Player #1 is a slightly better version of Player #4 minus the speed and a slightly shorter career. I honestly think Player #5 looks like the most rounded despite the low batting average and low RBIs (due to playing on some lousy teams).

Take your pick, I’d be content if none of these guys made it, nor would I be outraged if all of them found their way into the Hall. It’s just five very borderline candidates. My picks would be Players #3 and #5. The key:

Player #1 = Jim Rice
Player #2 = Albert Belle (who should get a deduction for being Albert Belle)
Player #3 = Andre Dawson
Player #4 = Dave Parker
Player #5 = Dale Murphy


THE PITCHER GLUT
Rich "Goose" Gossage
Lee Smith
Orel Hershiser
Tommy John
Jack Morris
*Bret Saberhagen

I hate relievers and think they are the most coddled professional athlete on the planet. The way most people feel about DH’s is how I feel about closers. I’d keep them all out. Except Goose Gossage. For two reasons: 1) The Hall needs more guys named Goose (bonus point to anyone who knows who the enshrined Goose’s last name) and 2) He pitched before the era of the one-inning bases-empty save. His 310 saves actually meant something.

The other pitchers are an assortment of flawed but interesting pitchers. Hersheiser has the consecutive scoreless innings streak, but really he was great for six years and then his career hit a wall. Tommy John has borderline numbers and the surgery named after him, but its not like he actually invented the surgery so he can’t get in on Contributions to the Game. Saberhagen was on his way to a Hall of Fame career before injuries absolutely wrecked his career. Hell, at age 30, he seemed like a shoo-in. Little did anyone know, he’d pitch only 488 more innings (which is about two full seasons). And they weren’t a good 488 innings.

If my life were on the line and I could have any one pitcher at his prime to pitch that one game, Morris would be my #2 choice behind Bob Gibson. He was The Big Game pitcher of my lifetime. Unfortunately, during all those other games he was merely good. His terrible 1992 postseason drags down the numbers (when he was clearly done as an effective pitcher), but check out the numbers in 1984 and 1991:

1984: 3 GS, 3-0, 25 IP, 1.80 ERA, 17 K, 4 BB, 18 H
1991: 5 GS, 4-0, 36.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB, 35 H

And that includes perhaps the greatest postseason game ever pitched, the 10-inning 1-0 victory in Game 7 of the 1991 Series. Morris was a total badass in the postseason.

DRUG ADDICTS
*Ken Caminiti,
*Jose Canseco,
*Mark McGwire,

Caminiti and Canseco wouldn’t get in even without the steroid problems. Which leaves us with McGwire, who would be clearly in if there was no taint of steroids. I haven’t clarified my thinking on this, but here’s my gut reaction: he should be in. Here’s why

1) People knew back in 1998. And that was the time to call him out on it. To bash him now seems rather hypocritical. He had andro in his locker, in view of the media.
2) Steroids are immoral, but their use wasn’t against the rules of baseball like they are now. Baseball dragged its feet on the issue and this is what they get.
3) Willie Mays has admitted to using speed. And we’re pretty sure half of the Hall of Fame inducted after 1950 has as well. We’ve got coke addicts and drunks in the Hall. Singling McGwire out seems grossly unfair.
4) It’s never been proven. OK, he probably did it, but we don’t know. And there’s a LOT of guys who probably did steroids in the 1990s. If Alex Sanchez got busted, it means anyone could be doing it, because he was a speedy, no-power slap hitter.
5) The Hall of Fame is full of rotten people. Ted Williams was a jerk. Ty Cobb was a racist. Rogers Hornsby was arguably the worst person to ever play a professional sport. Steroids is different because it affects the game itself, but I don’t buy the morality argument.


NO CHANCE IN HELL
*Dante Bichette,
*Bobby Bonilla,
*Scott Brosius,
*Jay Buhner,
*Eric Davis,
*Tony Fernandez,
*Wally Joyner,
*Paul O'Neill,
*Devon White,
*Bobby Witt.

I always love the list of first time guys who won’t garner enough votes to stay on the ballot. One or two of these guys might reach that 5% mark, but Jay Buhner’s fame is probably more tied to a Seinfeld episode. And there is a special place in hell for Tony F’n Fernandez was that home run he hit off Benitez in the 1997 ALCS. Not that I’m bitter. Oh, and Bobby Witt is one of my all-time favorite players. To say he had control problems is like saying OJ has publicity problems. He somehow got a World Series ring by sticking around long enough to end up in the D-Backs pen in 2001. I like big fat guys who play pro sports.

The Final Vote if I had a ballot:
Ripken
Gwynn
Blyleven
Trammell
Dawson
Murphy